According to the report prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs from 1990 to 2020, around 1,2 million people left Albania. It is about net migration, which includes the difference between those who return and those who leave.
The highest migration wave was in the period 1990-1995, when the transition from a centralized economy to a market economy and the opening of borders, meant that many Albanians left en masse, through embassies or ships. During this period, 443 thousand emigrants left the country.
The trend continued in 1995-2000, fueled by the riots of '97. During this period 180 thousand people left. The tendency of departures in the following five years was almost at the same level.
In the period 2005-2010, a growing migration wave was again noted, with 217 thousand people fleeing.
In the period 2010-2015, 137 thousand people left the country.
In the past five years, the trend to escape the country has continued, albeit at a slower pace in the 30 years of transition.
The United Nations population division that provides estimates and projections relating to the global demographic situation has also made predictions about the expected migration in the coming decades. According to the published statistics, at least for the next five years 2020-2025, migration will continue with high rates, with around 70 thousand people leaving the country.
In 2025-2030, figures on 55 are expected, which will continue to decrease over the next 5 years with 40 migrants on average.
As a result, the United Nations expects another 2100 people to leave Albania by 615.
The high trend towards emigration and the drop in fertility have led the United Nations to constantly review the downward projections on population growth. According to the latest assessment, which was made in 2019, in all cases, even in the optimistic version - that is, if we take a zero level of emigration and the normal course of fertility rates, in 2100, Albania should not exceed 1,9 , XNUMX million inhabitants.
In the second hypothesis, by averaging, Albania should not have more than 1 million inhabitants.
For the worst case scenario (high emigration rate and low fertility), in Albania in 2100, according to the expectations of the United Nations Division of the Population Division, there will remain no more than 512 thousand inhabitants.
The article was originally published in Albanian language from the economic magazine monitor.al
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