Until the 2050, the number of Albanian emigrants will be much higher than those who choose to return to live in the Land of Eagles.
This is what emerged from the latest World Bank forecasts. For the latter, in numerical terms, the net migration rate (difference between immigrants and immigrants) will amount to -40.000 people, for the period 2017-2022.
Trend that will continue until the 2047 and that therefore will see 40.000 citizens move away from the Country of the Eagles every five years, for a total of 280.000 people (to whom, however, the number of people who will return to Albania must be subtracted).
With a natural growth rate closer to zero and a new migration phenomenon, Albania risks a drastic drop in the number of its population.
Natural growth rate
The natural growth rate of the population - or the difference between births and deaths in a year - has been steadily decreasing for a few years, warning in this way that soon the number of births in Albania will be lower than that of deaths.
Last year, in fact, the natural growth rate amounted to 7130 people, the lowest level ever reached since the first years of post-Second World War according to Instat data.
According to the oldest data, however, which are not grouped year by year, Albania currently has the lowest natural growth rate ever achieved by the 1923. Indeed, according to the official estimates of the time, the natural growth rate between the 1923 and the 1945 amounted to an average of 18.000 people per year.
Population under one million
The projections by the Department of Population of the United Nations Organization (UN) indicate three possible scenarios for Albania.
The pessimistic version predicts that in the year 2100 the population of the country will be of just 860.000 inhabitants, while the optimistic scenario foresees that in the year 2100 the population will be at a value similar to the current one (2,8 million).
The normal and more reliable version, on the other hand, provides that between 81 years in the Land of Eagles there are 1,6 million inhabitants.
Emigration over the years
Emigration from Albania reached its peak just after the fall of the communist regime, in the 1992, when - according to the World Bank - there was a natural growth rate of 433.000 people.
After a stabilization in the middle of the 2000 years, emigration returned to emphasize following the 2008 crisis. With these declining rates, Albania - but also the entire Balkan region - is losing competitive advantage and human capital.
It is no coincidence that the Country of the Eagles has been indicated as one of the countries with the highest social risk due to the high level of emigration, which - combined with a fiscal crisis - does not make the country attractive for commercial activities of any kind.
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