The Albanian government has revised down the rate of growth of the country's economy for this year, going from the 4,3% at the beginning of the year to the 3,4% currently planned.
The news was communicated by the Minister of Economy and Finance, Anila Denaj, while she reported to the parliamentary assembly the changes regarding the state budget for the 2019.
"The changes aim to guarantee the financing of the reserve fund of the state budget, as a continuation of the emergency situation created after the earthquake of the 21 September. ”- the minister reported.
Specifically, Denaj said that the downward revision of economic growth will be accompanied by a lower level of revenue forecast for this year's budget, adding however that forecasts regarding debt indicators and budget deficits will remain unchanged and therefore those expected at the beginning of the year. The government aims to keep the level of the budget deficit below the 2% and the public debt at 64% of GDP.
The factors that have negatively influenced economic growth, according to the minister, were the decline in energy production and the closure of the gambling sector, while the sectors of industry, construction and transport recorded a positive trend.
For the minister, the main indicators of the economy had a stable course in the second quarter of this year as evidenced by the record level of employment in the country.
"Public fiscal sustainability and fiscal consolidation will continue this year as well, while until September financial statement indicators fall within the expected parameters. The VAT reimbursement has risen to 40% compared to last year, just as social security contributions have grown significantly."- concluded the minister.
World Bank, IMF and Deloitte forecasts
The World Bank, instead, it had drastically reduced the growth evaluation, bringing it back to an 2,9% on the budgeted 3,7%. Main motivation, the crisis in the energy sector. In the 2020-21 two-year projections, the World Bank had forecast an average growth of 3,5%, a potential rate for the Albanian economy (link)
The relationship of the IMF, which, starting from the estimated 3,7%, reduced the real growth of the country to 3%. Concause, both the energy crisis and the closure of the gambling sector, data that had also been confirmed by the Albanian Istat (article).
Deloitte's forecasts are more optimistic that - on the basis of the Economist database - it has published a dossier for Albania in which the growth of 3,4% is estimated for the 2019. On a prospective basis, by extending the forecasts up to the 2023, thus a period of 4 years, Deloitte states that growth will not go beyond 3,7%. Thus, there will be an average annual growth rate of 3,6%.