The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its forecasts on Albania's economic growth in the 2019 in the latest report entitled "World Economic Outlook" in October.
The current forecast is that the country's economy will grow by 3%, compared to the initially planned 3,7%. It is the second institution after the World Bank to revise down expectations for the economy.
The downward revision of both institutions came after the data from Instat had witnessed a halving of real growth, from over the 4% of the first half of the 2018 to the 2,2-2,3% of the first half of the 2019, as a result of the decline in production of energy and the closure of the gambling sector.
However, for the next few years, the FMN is more optimistic than the World Bank with 4% growth forecasts for the 2020-2024 period, compared to the 3,5% forecast by the World Bank.
For this year, therefore, Albania's growth forecasts are the lowest in the Western Balkans along with that of Bosnia (2,8%) and equal with Montenegro. On the other hand, instead, the highest growth forecasts are for Kosovo (4,2%), followed by Serbia (3,5%) and Northern Macedonia (3,2%).
A world-class trend
According to IMF data, the entire global economy is slowing down with estimated growth of around 3%, the slowest growth rate since the global financial crisis to date.
The main causes are due to the increase in trade barriers and the growing uncertainties regarding trade and geopolitics, but also to other factors such as low productivity growth and the demographic aging of advanced economies.
As for the 2020, instead, an economic growth of 3,4% is expected at global level, revised downwards compared to the initial 3,6% expected. Bad news also comes from the "neighbors" of Albania: for Italy the IMF expects only 0,2% growth in 2019 (and 1% in the 2020-2024 period); the highest forecast for economic growth in Greece (3%).
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