The European Commission has published the latest report on the prospects of the economies of the countries aspiring to join the European Union, concerning the third quarter of last year.
As in the latest autumn forecasts, the European Commission expects 3,9% economic growth for Albania, both this year and next.
Albania in the report
In the category concerning the main developments, the Commission cites only the protest of the students against the government, which led to the dismissal of the minister of education, of the minister of finance and the economy and of six other ministers (in the reshuffle of government of end last year).
As for employment, however, the executive arm of the European Union states that it has followed the trend of economic expansion. During the third quarter of last year, the general growth in employment - in the age group ranging from 15 to the 64 years - recorded an increase in 1,8%; while growth in the private sector, with the exception of agriculture, saw 7,5 grow.
In the monetary developments, the report highlights how the Central Bank of Albania continues to buy foreign currency, to stop the free fall of the euro against the lek. At the end of the 2018, in fact, the lek had strengthened by around 7,36% against the euro compared to the same period of the previous year.
Furthermore, the European Commission has confirmed the forecast of the Bank of Albania which sees inflation as falling within the 3% target set by the 2020.
In the category of tax developments, the Commission cites the approval of the budget for the 2019 in parliament, which is based on the positive performance of the 2018, with a fiscal deficit of 1,9% and a reduction of the public debt to 65,5% of the gross product.
The UN forecasts
In its economic prospects for the 2019, the UN expects a slowdown in GDP growth in Albania: in fact, from 4,2% of 2018, in fact, it will go respectively to 4% of 2019 and 3,8% of 2020. Forecasts slightly lower than the 4,4% within the 2020 predicted by the government.
The report shows that the slowdown in trade with Italy and other EU countries is one of the main causes:
"Given the importance of commercial, investment and remittance links with the European Union, any deterioration in the economic performance of the European Union will have negative consequences for the entire Western Balkan region.”- highlights the report.
In addition, the report continues, high unemployment and inadequate infrastructure also play a key role in future forecasts for the country's GDP, but also for the region.
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