A slowdown in the economic performance of Italy and Greece (Albania's main trading partners) and the consequences of Brexit will negatively affect the Albanian GDP growth prospects for the next two years, reports the UN.
The UN forecasts
In its economic prospects for the 2019, the UN expects a slowdown in GDP growth in Albania: in fact, from 4,2% of 2018, in fact, it will go respectively to 4% of 2019 and 3,8% of 2020. Forecasts slightly lower than the 4,4% within the 2020 predicted by the government.
The report shows that the slowdown in trade with Italy is one of the main causes:
"Italy, which already has a high level of public debt, has openly declared its intention to increase tax obligations.
This could potentially create a clash between the guidelines established by the European Union and national fiscal policy positions. ”- reads the publication.
Even Greece, the main foreign investor in the country, should - according to forecasts - reduce trade relations with Albania, up to a record low of 1,5% in the 2020:
"Given the importance of commercial, investment and remittance links with the European Union, any deterioration in the economic performance of the European Union will have negative consequences for the entire Western Balkan region.”- highlights the report.
Furthermore, high unemployment and inadequate infrastructure also play a key role in future forecasts for the country's GDP, but also for the region:
"Stronger growth is needed to address the various problems in the region, such as unemployment and the need for re-industrialization.
However, this growth is still limited by inadequate infrastructure, dependence on foreign financing and a difficult economic environment.”- states the UN.
Brexit and the reduction of EU funding
The report goes on to say that the possibility of Brexit (with or without agreement with EU leaders) could reduce EU membership funds for Albania and other 10-15% candidate countries.
"Unless other states increase their contribution, Brexit will lead to a reduction of the 10-15% of the structural funds for membership."- also stated the European bank for reconstruction and development (EBRD).
EU candidate since the middle of the 2014, Albania hopes to start accession negotiations next June although European leaders have said that a possible green light will depend on further progress with the reforms, to strengthen the rule of law and fight organized crime and corruption.
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